release edition [089] read time [7 minutes] Welcome to The Multifamily Download, a weekly newsletter where I provide institutional insights to help you build an exceptional Multifamily career. Forwarded this email? Subscribe here. Today at a Glance:
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PerspectiveToday's newsletter is different from the typical format. As I was writing last night, I realized that this is the last edition of The Multifamily Download in Q3 of 2026, and if we're being honest, I think we'd all agree that this feels like a precarious moment for many of us in the CRE industry and Multifamily sector specifically. The Fed has begun hiking rates once again on the heels of what was arguably their most aggressive hiking cycle to date in 2022-2023. Whether you agree with their policy or not, it is the reality that we must all confront. Some people will make the argument that the Fed rate hikes have been misguided. And instead, that the rebalancing of the supply chain post-COVID was largely responsible for a return to lower inflation. However, given that CPI figures still sit uncomfortably beyond the Fed's 2% target, this begs a simple question: Could it be that hikes are themselves inflationary, and therefore they are not the "end all be all" for quelling inflationary pressures? Just something to think about and consider studying, if you haven't already. A great place to start is studying the work of Richard Werner, or reading what Bill Ackman recently shared below on X.
Furthermore, the bond market is absorbing massive amounts of AI CapEx financing that has never been seen before (see below), at a time when fiscal policy is also being scrutinized ahead of the midterm elections. Furthermore, stock market profit margins are blowing way past estimates and thus preserving the relative attractiveness of U.S. equities from a P/E perspective. As you can see in the charts below from Vanguard, the AI CapEx buildout is in full effect with no signs of slowing anytime soon. Two of the questions worth asking are the following: Will the continuation of the AI CapEx buildout continue to put upward pressure on bond yields? And if the answer is yes, how will that upward pressure impact Commercial Real Estate capital flows, resulting cap rates, and ultimately the property values? All of that to say, this is an interesting moment for both Multifamily and the broader Commercial Real Estate industry. As I study both cycles of the past and people further ahead of me in the industry, I have come to appreciate just how powerful perspective can be in moments like this. In fact, I am reminding myself that neither good times nor bad times last forever. Yes, the market feels difficult. Yes, the buyer-seller pricing disconnect will probably widen further before a healthy transaction market is reestablished. And yes, these difficulties are going to cause a lot of anguish and pain for many owners across the Multifamily sector. But like anything difficult in life, I am here to remind us both that how we respond and adapt to the reality in front of us is ultimately what will define us. Let me tell you some of my career story that I don't share very often. It was the summer of 2019 and I was living in L.A. My wife and I had recently gotten married, and we made the decision that I would leave my job to relocate down to Orange County. As I began to evaluate where I wanted to turn my career focus next, I knew that I would end up somewhere in the Multifamily sector. (Fun fact: I have handwritten journals from 2016 where I wrote my goals each morning, including the company I'd one day build along with the number of units I'd one day own and operate). I concluded that there were three paths:
If you were in the industry at this time then you almost certainly knew someone that had chosen option 3, and for good reason. The Multifamily market was humming along, rent growth seemed as consistent as death and taxes, and capital was searching for a home amid a low, flat interest rate curve and elevated stock market P/Es and values. The opportunity cost of holding cash versus buying a 4% or 5% cap apartment property felt enormous, not to mention the tax benefits associated with the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. So what did I do? I made the conscious choice not to syndicate, because I recognized that I didn't know what I didn't know (even though it certainly was tempting for a number of reasons), and instead, I decided to join Cushman & Wakefield to do Multifamily Investment Sales. 100% commission, here I come! My brokerage career began in December of 2019. Three months later, the world shut down, and I had to face the reality in front of me. My prospective Seller clients were largely 65 years old or older, and they had zero interest in meeting me face to face in 2020. Adversity had come knocking, but I chose this path, and I knew it was my duty to see it through. Perspective, right? But while perspective and determination are great, they don't always payoff in the short term. I closed one deal in 2020. Yes, one. It was a fourplex in Anaheim, California. Thankfully, 2021 was far better, and then 2022 was even better still. But by May of 2022 I recognized that the Fed's hiking cycle was going to halt most of the Seller transaction volume in my SoCal private client markets. So, I pivoted. For the last four years I've been on the private equity and principal side of the business, learning what it takes to acquire and operate Multifamily assets. Why am I sharing this with you? Partly because I want you to know more about where I've been, and how I got to where I am today. And partly to reinforce that each of our perspectives is chosen, and to remind you that today, when the storm gets ugly and the waves begin to crash, we are all faced with a simple but powerful choice: To persist, or to pivot. Only you will know the correct answer, and I'm certainly not going to tell you which one is right for you. I've persisted in some seasons (like in 2020 and 2021), and I've pivoted in others (like in 2022). Doing an honest evaluation of where you are today, where you want to go, and how the road could unfold as you go from here to there is a critically important part of your career journey. My 2016 goals haven't changed, and I'm excited to see how the next few years unfold. My hope is that you are excited for the next few years of your career, too. If you aren't, or if you're feeling confused or defeated, reach out and let's figure it out together. I don't have all the answers, and I never will, but I know that our perspective is a choice, and it's powerful. Like Henry Ford infamously said, "Whether you think you can or you think you can't, you're right". Weekly ListenThis week's listen is an invitation to listen to yourself. As Q3 comes to a close, I would encourage you to carve out time to sit quietly and journal your thoughts down on paper. I have found journaling to be a powerful way to mentally declutter, reorient my thoughts and beliefs, and to unlock mental clarity. If you do so, you can find 10 excellent reflection prompts here, courtesy of Dickie Bush. Wrap UpThat's it for today. I hope you found this edition of The Multifamily Download insightful. Consider sharing this link to The Multifamily Download with a friend or colleague. Your feedback is appreciated, so feel free to reply anytime. Thanks for reading. See you next week! Forwarded this email? Sign up here. Join me on LinkedIn | Twitter | Website |
The Multifamily Download · September 26, 2026
Persist or Pivot?
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